What 2014 and 2018 told us, and what came true

Research is only useful if you go back and check it.

Before we ask the sector a new set of questions, it’s worth looking honestly at what the last two editions said: what came true, what didn’t, and what’s barely moved. Some of it we got right. Some of it we didn’t. Both are useful.

The calls that came true

Cloud would change the economics of SMSF work. In 2014, 44.8% of practices were using any cloud technology. By 2018 it was around 90%. We said a successful move to cloud SMSF software would deliver efficiency gains of around 40% within three years. In 2018, practices reported an average of 81.9%.

Specialists would win the new work. In 2018, specialist SMSF practices captured 74% of new business, and firms with 400+ funds gained more than five times the new work of the industry average. That concentration has only continued.

The audit market would consolidate. In 2018 we noted auditor numbers had already fallen substantially with the introduction of additional regulation. The ATO’s latest data shows around 4,770 SMSF auditors performing audits for the 2019–20 year, falling to around 2,940 for 2023–24. Just 11% of auditors now complete 75% of all SMSF audits.

The call that hasn’t landed yet

The long tail of tax agents. In 2018 we pointed to around 6,700 tax agents (half of all agents lodging SMSF returns) who lodged 10 or fewer funds, and said they were likely to drop off. They haven’t. For 2023–24, around 53% of tax agents lodging SMSF returns still lodged 10 or fewer, and the median agent lodged just nine. The tail is still there.

That matters. Those practices carry the same compliance obligations, the same reform workload and the same technology decisions as everyone else, across a handful of funds.

Growth: the call we’ve always made

We’ve always been optimistic about SMSF growth, and nothing in either report said otherwise.

In 2018, annual fund establishments were at their lowest in a decade. We noted it as a period of low growth, given the higher barriers to entry at the time, not a sign the sector was heading into long-term decline.

The current environment bears that out. The ATO recorded 52,020 new SMSFs in 2025–26, roughly double the 25,879 of five years earlier, taking the sector to more than 680,000 funds at 30 June 2026. And the new trustees are younger: around half of the members joining new SMSFs in the June 2026 quarter were under 45.

Translated: the growth is here. The question for 2027 isn’t whether funds are being established, it’s whether they’re the right funds, set up for the right reasons, with the right advice.

What’s barely moved

Pricing. In 2018, 52.6% of practices were still pricing SMSF work on time cost, even as technology changed what that time was worth. Practices expected revenue growth of 22% and achieved 13%.

And the biggest one: the change gap. The efficiency gains in 2018 came mostly from the software, not from practices changing how they worked. When we asked why, one answer stood out: too many other changes happening at the same time.

With AI and reform arriving together, that answer is going to be tested again.

The long view

Many of the same questions run through every edition. The 2027 column is still blank.

Some questions were worded differently between editions, so treat comparisons as indicative. Sources: Future of SMSF Reports 2014 and 2018; ATO SMSF statistical overview 2023–24; ATO SMSF quarterly statistical report, June 2026.

Final word

The point of going back isn’t to keep score. It’s to show that the decisions practices make on technology, pricing and specialisation play out in the numbers a few years later.

The 2027 edition will ask many of the same questions, so the trend lines carry on, and add the ones that didn’t exist in 2018: AI, workforce capacity, and readiness for the reforms now landing. Wave 1 opens on Monday 16 November. You can read both past reports here.

We believe smart people learn together. Here’s to filling in the 2027 column.

Aaron Dunn

CEO and Founder of Smarter SMSF and author of the Future of SMSF reports since 2014. SMSF Association Chair Award 2023, recognised for his outstanding contribution to the SMSF sector, having made significant contributions to sector growth and sustainability.